The University of Arizona Southwest Institute for Research on Women has released its most recent update to its report on Housing Insecurity Indicators and Potential Homelessness Estimates for Arizona and Pima County. This report measures current housing insecurity with newer census data.

Download the report here.

This most recent survey wave contains multiple positive developments:

• The positive macroeconomic situation has continued to hold steadily at both the national and state levels.
• The unemployment rate in Arizona, 3.8% in March 2024, is a modest decrease relative to 4.1% in February and remains below historical averages.
• In the previous survey wave, collected February 6th-March 4th 2024, the proportion of non-current renters in Arizona was 6.3%. In the most recent survey, conducted March 5th-April 1st 2024, this proportion rose very slightly to 6.7%.
• The proportion of these non-current renters viewing eviction in the next two months as “very likely” remained very low at 8.5% (9.9% last survey wave).

Throughout all of 2023 housing insecurity among Arizona renters remained stubbornly high despite historically low unemployment. 

• These last two survey waves contain the first clear signals that the breadth of housing insecurity in Arizona is easing substantially. That said, lower-income and BIPOC Arizona households remain disproportionately likely to report being not current on their rent payments and finding it very difficult to meet usual expenses.
• The National Equity Atlas estimated that 79% of non-current renters in Arizona are POC and 75% are low-income (based on the Census HPS data wave collected Jan 9th-Feb 5th 2024).
• Mortgage holders in Arizona continue to be in a strong financial position relative to renters.
  • Only 4.2% reported being not current on mortgage payments (down slightly from 5.3% last wave).
  • Although among this small share of non-current mortgage holders concern about the likelihood of foreclosure in the next two months increased this wave to 16% from only 1% last wave.
• Among non-current Arizona renters, the depth of rental debt has decreased.
  • This most recent survey indicates that, among Arizona renters who are behind on their rent, 66%, are only behind on their payments 1 month or less.
  • And 71% of non-current Arizona renters were only 2 months behind on rent or less.
  • In the fall of 2022 Tucson rent prices began decreasing on average, albeit very modestly.
  • In the Spring of 2023 rent prices in Tucson registered modest upticks in median/average rent prices. Despite these increases, seasonally adjusted metrics of Tucson rent prices increased only 3.5% between April 2023 and April 2024.
  • This is a substantial slowdown in the rate of rental price increases we have seen in recent years. 
• In addition, there is unambiguous good news in the rental vacancy rate, which has been trending upwards since the end of 2021, and hit an 8-year high in the 1st quarter of 2024. However, countervailing signals worth attention include:
  • only 51% of all Arizona respondents reported they had not experienced pressure to move in the last 6 months, down from 62% of respondents reporting no pressure last wave.
  • 67% of Arizona renters reported an increase in their monthly rent in the last year (up from 57% last survey wave) and 50% reported an increase of $100 or more (up from 43% last wave).

Download the report here.

The University of Arizona Southwest Institute for Research on Women has released its most recent update to its report on Housing Insecurity Indicators and Potential Homelessness Estimates for Arizona and Pima County. This report measures current housing insecurity with newer census data.

Download the report here.

This most recent survey wave contains multiple pieces of concerning news.

•  In the previous survey wave, collected September 20th-October 2nd 2023, the proportion of non-current renters in Arizona was 11.5%. In the most recent survey, conducted October 18th-30th 2023, this proportion fell modestly to 9.4%. While the proportion not current on rent payments decreased, the proportion of these non-current renters viewing eviction in the next two months as “very likely” increased to 19.9% (up from only 5% last survey wave).
• In October of 2023 we observed the largest monthly count of eviction filings in Pima County since the onset of the pandemic with 1307 eviction filings. Eviction filings continue to increase despite the strong economy and the relative slowing of rent price increases over the past year
• Housing insecurity among Arizona renters remains stubbornly high despite historically low unemployment. Rising rents and inflation are likely the central drivers of this disconnect, especially for households with limitations on their ability to benefit from the strong labor market.
• Lower-income and BIPOC Arizona households remain disproportionately likely to report being not current on their rent payments and finding it very difficult to meet usual expenses. 39% of Black Arizonan heads of households reported finding it very difficult to meet usual expenses in the past week in this most recent survey. This situation was also reported by 25% of Hispanic or Latino heads of household in Arizona, and over 40% of households earning less than $25k a year (surveyed this wave).

There is continuing good news to report on rents.

• The positive macroeconomic situation has continued to hold steadily at both the national and state levels. The unemployment rate in Arizona, 4.0% in September, is a modest increase relative to a low of 3.4% this past May but remains well below historical averages.
• Mortgage holders in Arizona continue to be in a strong financial position relative to renters. Only 6.3% reported being not current on mortgage payments (up modestly from a low of 3.5% in August of this year). However, among these non-current mortgage holders concern about the likelihood of foreclosure in the next two months is at the lowest levels observed in these surveys to date. Further good news is that since, roughly, February of 2023, counts of calls to 211 from Pima County indicate a substantial decrease in calls related to housing and shelter, utilities, and food requests between February and July.
• In the fall of 2022 Tucson rent prices began decreasing on average, albeit very modestly. In the Spring of 2023 of rent prices in Tucson registered modest upticks in median/average rent prices. Despite these increases, seasonally adjusted metrics of Tucson rent prices increased only 3.3% between September 2022 and September 2023. This is a substantial slowdown in the rate of rental price increases we have seen in recent years. In addition, there is unambiguous good news in the rental vacancy rate, which has been trending upwards since the end of 2021, and hit an 8-year high in the 2nd quarter of 2023. On the other hand, only 47% of all Arizona respondents reported they had not experienced pressure to move in the last 6 months. 10% of Arizona households reported reducing or not paying expenses for basic household necessities (such as medicine or food) “almost every month” in the last 12 months in order to pay an energy bill. Only 50% of households reported “never” being in this situation.

Download the report here.

Panel on older adults experiencing homelessness and/or domestic abuse on December 1, 2023 at 9am at the 320 N Commerce Park Loop

This panel will host representatives from the following organizations: 

• Stop Abuse and Financial Exploitation of Elders (SAFEE)
• Emerge! Center Against Domestic Abuse
• City of Tucson
• University of Arizona Southwest Institute for Research on Women (UA SIROW)

The agenda for the discussion will be the following: 

• Introduction & Overview of Older Adult Homelessness Trends and Experiences  (15 min)
• Discussion of Qualitative Findings Related to Older Adult Homelessness from Homeless Needs Assessment (10 minutes)
• Overview of ARC and Needs of Older Adults in Shelter Care  (10 minutes)
• Overview of Continuum of Care, Coordinated Entry, and Older Adult Resources (10 minutes)
• Overview of Shelter and Services Provided by City of Tucson and Experiences/Needs of Older Adults in Care (10 minutes)
• Overview of Older Adult Domestic Abuse Issues/Trends and Resources (10 minutes)
• Q&A – From Moderator and Panel (25 minutes)

Register at the link below to get more information about quarterly free trainings from the Administration of Resources and Choices. 

This flyer below is also available here for download. 

TPCH Continuum of Care Program Grant Committee to Host First of Three Sessions on Community-Wide Performance

Session 1: Increasing Income
Thursday, October 19, 2023, 9:00-11:00am
Abrams Public Health Center
3950 S Country Club Rd, Tucson, AZ 85713

We look forward to hosting community partners for a conversation about increasing income among participants in our homelessness and housing programs in October. This session is part of a series hosted by the Tucson-Pima Collaboration to End Homelessness (TPCH) Program Grant Committee, which is responsible for monitoring and providing technical assistance to local programs. The Program Grant Committee also plans to host sessions related to bed utilization and prompt access to housing over the next few months.

Slides available for download here: CoC Program Grant Committee_Increasing Income Session_10.19.2023

Our October session will focus on increasing income for individuals in housing programs (rapid rehousing and permanent supportive housing), which has been an area where our CoC programs have consistently struggled. We hope this session can serve as a tool to examine current practices, explore new strategies, and develop a plan of action to support program participants. 

Specifically, this session will: 

• Review the 'increasing income' (at annual assessment and exit) performance measure and data collection procedures
• Identify top best practices currently being used and top barriers to helping increase income
• Identify deep-dive presentation topics related to increasing income for upcoming TPCH General Council session(s)

Please have all who plan on attending register using this form so a calendar invite can be sent to them. 

Slides available for download here: CoC Program Grant Committee_Increasing Income Session_10.19.2023